DATA606 Data Project

DATA606 Data Project

Abstract

It may be self-evident that the amount of money spent on education by a country will have an impact on the country’s literacy rate. But is there a statistically significant relationship? And can that relationship be quantified using a predictive model? It is further presumed that literacy rates will be lower in poorer regions of the world and in those having forms of government in which the head of state holds more power and has less accountability to his or her constituents. This project sought to validate those assumptions and to generate a model that will predict the change in literacy rate based on the studied parameters.

The study confirms that literacy rate is impacted positively by educational spending, with a fairly steep relationship: A one-percent increase in educational spending yields an almost a three-percent rise in literacy rate. There is also evidence to suggest a statistically significant relationship between literacy and both the country’s geographic subregion and its form of government, although it is noted that not all conditions were sufficiently satisfied for the analysis.

Part 1 - Introduction

It may be self-evident that the amount of money spent on education by a country will have an impact on the country’s literacy rate. But is there a statistically significant relationship? And can that relationship be quantified using a predictive model?

It is further presumed that literacy rates will be lower in poorer regions of the world and in those having forms of government in which the head of state holds more power and has less accountability to his or her constituents. This project seeks to validate those assumptions and to generate a model that will predict the change in literacy rate based on the studied parameters.

Part 2 - Data

The data came from several sources:

• Regional data is from a public dataset on Github\(^1\).

• Government spending on education is posted on worldbank.org and is collected annually from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics; data from the years 1960 to 2020 was available for download\(^2\).

• Literacy rates were obtained from an aggregated dataset on wikimedia.org; the data was originally collected by worldbank.org, the CIA World Factbook, and other sources. The dataset includes some historical data as old as 1475 but with a majority of data points between 1960 and 2015\(^3\). For the purposes of this study, only data from 1960 or newer was used.

• Forms of government were taken from Wikipedia\(^4\).

Data preparation included a few tidying steps:

• Removing footnotes and general tidying of the data
• Standardizing country codes across data sets
• Standardizing field names

##########################
# Regions
##########################

# Load countries by region
# from https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lukes/ISO-3166-Countries-with-Regional-Codes/master/all/all.csv
regions_full <- read.csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mmippolito/cuny/main/data606/project/country_regions.csv")

# Standarize field names
regions <- regions_full %>%
  rename(
    "country_numeric_code" = "country.code",
    "country_code" = "alpha.3",
    "subregion" = "sub.region"
  )


##########################
# Government spending
##########################

# Load govt spending on education data set
# from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS
edspending_full <- read.csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mmippolito/cuny/main/data606/project/govt_ed_spending.csv")

# Standardize field names
edspending <- edspending_full %>%
  rename(
    "country" = "Country.Name",
    "country_code" = "Country.Code"
  ) %>%
  select(-`Indicator.Name`, -`Indicator.Code`, -`X`)

# Remove Xs from years in column names
edspending <- rename_with(edspending, function(x) ifelse(substr(x, 1, 1) == "X", substr(x, 2, 5), x))

# Gather columns
edspending <- edspending %>% gather(3:63, key = "year", value = "pct_gdp")

# Convert years to numeric
edspending$year <- as.numeric(edspending$year)


##########################
# Literacy rates
##########################

# Load literacy rates
# from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Data:Cross-country_literacy_rates_-_World_Bank,_CIA_World_Factbook,_and_other_sources_(OWID_2762).tab
lit_full <- read.csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mmippolito/cuny/main/data606/project/cross-country-literacy-rates.csv")

# Standardize field names
lit <- lit_full %>%
    rename(
        "country" = "Entity",
        "country_code" = "Code",
        "year" = "Year",
        "lit_rate" = "Literacy.rates..World.Bank..CIA.World.Factbook..and.other.sources."
    ) %>%
    filter(year >= 1960)


##########################
# Forms of government
##########################

# Load forms of government from CSV if it exists, otherwise parse from Wikipedia
# from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_system_of_government
if (url.exists("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mmippolito/cuny/main/data606/project/govt_forms.csv")) {
    govts <- read.csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mmippolito/cuny/main/data606/project/govt_forms.csv", header = T)
} else {
    # Scrape and parse tables
    govts_html <- read_html("https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_system_of_government", encoding = "UTF-8")
    govts_tables <- html_table(govts_html, fill = TRUE)
    govts <- data.frame(govts_tables[6])
    # Standarize field names
    govts <- govts %>%
        rename(
            country = Name, 
            govt = Constitutional.form, 
            head_of_state = Head.of.state, 
            exec_legitimacy = Basis.of.executive.legitimacy)
    # Remove footnotes
    govts$exec_legitimacy <- str_replace_all(govts$exec_legitimacy, '\\[.+?\\]', '')
    # Change provisional gov't with no head to "no" instead of "n/a"
    govts$head_of_state <- ifelse(govts$head_of_state == "n/a", "no", govts$head_of_state)
    # Lower case
    govts$govt <- tolower(govts$govt)
    govts$head_of_state <- tolower(govts$head_of_state)
    govts$exec_legitimacy <- tolower(govts$exec_legitimacy)
    # Standardize names
    govts <- govts %>%
        mutate(country = case_when(
            country == "Bahamas, The" ~ "Bahamas",
            country == "China, People's Republic of" ~ "China",
            country == "Congo, Democratic Republic of the" ~ "Democratic Republic of Congo",
            country == "Congo, Republic of the" ~ "Congo",
            country == "Côte d'Ivoire" ~ "Cote d'Ivoire",
            country == "Czech Republic" ~ "Czechia",
            country == "East Timor" ~ "Timor",
            country == "Federated States of Micronesia" ~ "Micronesia",
            country == "Gambia, The" ~ "Gambia",
            country == "Korea, North" ~ "North Korea",
            country == "Korea, South" ~ "South Korea",
            country == "São Tomé and Príncipe" ~ "Sao Tome and Principe",
            country == "Vatican City" ~ "Vatican",
            TRUE ~ country)
        )
    # Add country codes by joining to lit_sum
    govts <-govts %>% 
        left_join(
            lit %>% group_by(country, country_code) %>% summarize(n(), .groups = "keep")
            , by = c("country")) %>%
        select(country, govt, head_of_state, exec_legitimacy, country_code)
    # Save to CSV
    # Create short form of exec_legitimacy
    govts <- govts %>%
        mutate(exec_legit_short = case_when(
            exec_legitimacy == "all authority vested in absolute monarch" ~ 
                "having absolute authority",
            exec_legitimacy == "ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence" ~ 
                "accountable to legislature",
            exec_legitimacy == "monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions" ~ 
                "sharing power",
            exec_legitimacy == "no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime" ~ 
                "with no contsitutional legitimacy",
            exec_legitimacy == "power constitutionally linked to a single political movement" ~ 
                "constitutionally granted power by single party",
            exec_legitimacy == "presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence" ~ 
                "independent of and accountable to legislature",
            exec_legitimacy == "presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence" ~ 
                "elected by legislature",
            exec_legitimacy == "presidency is independent of legislature" ~ 
                "independent of legislature",
            TRUE ~ '')
        )
    govts$govt_type_short <- paste0(govts$govt, " with ", govts$head_of_state, " head\n", govts$exec_legit_short)
}

Because the data came from disparate sources, there were gaps that had to be addressed before proceeding with analysis. For example, many countries had sparser data on literacy rates compared to government spending on education:

regions %>%
    select(country_code) %>%
    left_join(edspending, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    group_by(country_code) %>%
    summarize(edspending_year_count = n()) %>%
    full_join(lit, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    group_by(country_code, edspending_year_count) %>%
    summarize(litrate_year_count = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    full_join(govts, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    group_by(country_code, edspending_year_count, litrate_year_count) %>%
    summarize(govt_count = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    group_by() %>%
    summarize(countries = n(), ed_spending_year_count = sum(edspending_year_count, na.rm = T),
        litrate_year_count = sum(litrate_year_count, na.rm = T), govt_count = sum(govt_count, na.rm = T)) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 1.</b> Summary of observations</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 1. Summary of observations

countries	ed_spending_year_count	litrate_year_count	govt_count
253	13149	1268	255

In addition, some countries had no country code listed, while others had no literacy rate or educational spending data:

regions %>%
    select(country_code) %>%
    left_join(edspending, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    group_by(country_code) %>%
    summarize(edspending_year_count = n()) %>%
    full_join(lit, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    group_by(country_code, edspending_year_count) %>%
    summarize(litrate_year_count = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    full_join(govts, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    group_by(country_code, edspending_year_count, litrate_year_count) %>%
    summarize(govt_count = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    arrange(country_code) %>%
    filter(is.na(edspending_year_count) | is.na(litrate_year_count) | is.na(govt_count)) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 1.5.</b> Data gaps</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 1.5. Data gaps

country_code	edspending_year_count	litrate_year_count	govt_count
	NA	109	1
OWID_KOS	NA	1	1
OWID_WRL	NA	4	1
NA	NA	NA	3

For these reasons, the data couldn’t be reliably compared on a year-by-year basis. Instead, the data was taken as an aggregate, using mean values for literacy rate and educational spending per country.

##########################
# Data aggregation
##########################

# Calculate mean literacy rate per country
lit_sum <- lit %>% 
    group_by(country, country_code) %>%
    summarize(lit_rate = mean(lit_rate, na.rm = T), .groups = "keep")

# Calculate mean education spending per country
ed_sum <- edspending %>% group_by(country, country_code) %>%
    summarize(pct_gdp = mean(pct_gdp, na.rm = T), .groups = "keep")

# Join the summarized tables
j <- lit_sum %>% 
    full_join(ed_sum, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    full_join(govts, by = c("country_code")) %>%
    left_join(regions, by = c("country_code"))

# Filter out rows with no country code or subregion; these are regional aggregations
j <- j %>%
    filter(str_length(country_code) > 0 & str_length(region) > 0)

# Filter out NaNs
#j <- j %>%
#  filter(!is.na(pct_gdp)) %>%
#  filter(!is.na(lit_rate))

# Select only relevant fields
j <- j %>%
    select(country_code, country = country.x, region, subregion, 
        pct_gdp, lit_rate, govt, head_of_state, exec_legitimacy, exec_legit_short, govt_type_short)

# Add rankings
j$rank_pct_gdp <- rank(desc(j$pct_gdp))
j$rank_lit_rate <- rank(desc(j$lit_rate))

Part 3 - Exploratory data analysis

Data overview:

# Data overview
j %>%
    arrange(country_code) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 2.</b> Sample data</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 2. Sample data

country_code	country	region	subregion	pct_gdp	lit_rate	govt	head_of_state	exec_legitimacy	exec_legit_short	govt_type_short	rank_pct_gdp	rank_lit_rate
ABW	Aruba	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.404377	97.21270	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	48	71.0
AFG	Afghanistan	Asia	Southern Asia	2.529187	29.35561	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	170	208.0
AGO	Angola	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.483620	69.85356	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	127	166.0
AIA	Anguilla	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NA	95.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	198	87.0
ALB	Albania	Europe	Southern Europe	3.418164	97.25956	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	130	69.0
AND	Andorra	Europe	Southern Europe	2.741496	100.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	158	4.0
ARE	United Arab Emirates	Asia	Western Asia	NaN	76.94260	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	217	153.0
ARG	Argentina	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.317577	95.24479	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	137	85.0
ARM	Armenia	Asia	Western Asia	2.694361	99.41624	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	160	20.0
ASM	American Samoa	Oceania	Polynesia	NaN	97.34416	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	197	67.0
ATG	Antigua and Barbuda	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	2.888497	98.95000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	154	47.0
AUS	Australia	Oceania	Australia and New Zealand	5.151343	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	57	38.0
AUT	Austria	Europe	Western Europe	5.257330	98.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	54	57.5
AZE	Azerbaijan	Asia	Western Asia	3.109744	99.65141	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	143	13.0
BDI	Burundi	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.565271	58.32817	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	82	183.0
BEL	Belgium	Europe	Western Europe	5.556783	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	40	38.0
BEN	Benin	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.794050	29.10703	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	155	209.0
BFA	Burkina Faso	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.298072	22.66968	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	139	213.0
BGD	Bangladesh	Asia	Southern Asia	1.678536	46.82022	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	191	195.0
BGR	Bulgaria	Europe	Eastern Europe	3.805609	98.31486	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	111	51.0
BHR	Bahrain	Asia	Western Asia	2.566467	86.11803	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	165	127.0
BHS	Bahamas	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	2.232840	95.60000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	178	83.0
BIH	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Europe	Southern Europe	NaN	95.33726	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	200	84.0
BLR	Belarus	Europe	Eastern Europe	5.239945	99.20330	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	56	24.0
BLZ	Belize	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	6.272143	76.53762	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	20	154.0
BMU	Bermuda	Americas	Northern America	2.544276	98.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	166	57.5
BOL	Bolivia	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NaN	74.46010	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	199	156.0
BRA	Brazil	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.080326	84.64864	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	58	132.0
BRB	Barbados	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.537892	99.48404	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	42	17.0
BRN	Brunei	Asia	South-eastern Asia	3.703406	90.21032	absolute monarchy	executive	all authority vested in absolute monarch	having absolute authority	absolute monarchy with executive head having absolute authority	118	113.0
BTN	Bhutan	Asia	Southern Asia	6.021192	57.91837	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	25	184.0
BWA	Botswana	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.993343	81.42539	republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	elected by legislature	republic with executive head elected by legislature	26	140.0
CAF	Central African Republic	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.740243	35.20220	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	188	205.0
CAN	Canada	Americas	Northern America	6.197651	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	21	38.0
CHE	Switzerland	Europe	Western Europe	4.689695	99.00000	republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	elected by legislature	republic with executive head elected by legislature	75	38.0
CHL	Chile	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.691271	93.57834	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	119	98.0
CHN	China	Asia	Eastern Asia	1.844865	85.13846	republic	ceremonial	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	constitutionally granted power by single party	republic with ceremonial head constitutionally granted power by single party	187	131.0
CIV	Cote d’Ivoire	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.928473	40.69545	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	68	202.0
CMR	Cameroon	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.897598	65.31628	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	152	175.0
COD	Democratic Republic of Congo	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.607514	70.15435	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	192	165.0
COG	Congo	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.019531	79.31117	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	59	146.0
COK	Cook Islands	Oceania	Polynesia	NA	95.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	202	87.0
COL	Colombia	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.874822	86.52842	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	106	123.0
COM	Comoros	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.766659	68.02978	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	156	170.0
CPV	Cape Verde	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.841645	79.15245	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	31	147.0
CRI	Costa Rica	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.588009	91.13427	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	37	107.0
CUB	Cuba	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	9.324697	92.31931	republic	executive	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	constitutionally granted power by single party	republic with executive head constitutionally granted power by single party	3	105.0
CUW	NA	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.930950	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	67	215.0
CYM	Cayman Islands	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NaN	98.86782	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	201	48.0
CYP	Cyprus	Asia	Western Asia	4.818381	97.22608	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	72	70.0
CZE	Czechia	Europe	Eastern Europe	4.162092	99.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	93	38.0
DEU	Germany	Europe	Western Europe	4.667312	99.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	76	38.0
DJI	Djibouti	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	6.866364	67.90000	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	12	171.0
DMA	Dominica	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.608076	94.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	80	94.0
DNK	Denmark	Europe	Northern Europe	7.190932	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	10	38.0
DOM	Dominican Republic	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	1.555551	77.72348	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	193	151.0
DZA	Algeria	Africa	Northern Africa	6.038817	69.37950	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	24	167.0
ECU	Ecuador	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.705038	83.11557	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	117	138.0
EGY	Egypt	Africa	Northern Africa	4.600963	63.64481	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	81	177.0
ERI	Eritrea	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.481282	66.38323	republic	executive	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	constitutionally granted power by single party	republic with executive head constitutionally granted power by single party	128	174.0
ESP	Spain	Europe	Southern Europe	3.724955	97.32185	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	115	68.0
EST	Estonia	Europe	Northern Europe	5.414394	99.80073	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	46	9.0
ETH	Ethiopia	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.826884	36.15184	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	109	204.0
FIN	Finland	Europe	Northern Europe	5.825813	100.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	32	4.0
FJI	Fiji	Oceania	Melanesia	5.310019	93.70000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	52	95.0
FRA	France	Europe	Western Europe	4.619930	99.00000	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	78	38.0
FRO	NA	Europe	Northern Europe	NaN	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	220	216.0
FSM	NA	Oceania	Micronesia	8.513233	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	5	219.0
GAB	Gabon	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.100981	79.90022	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	144	145.0
GBR	United Kingdom	Europe	Northern Europe	4.948231	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	64	38.0
GEO	Georgia	Asia	Western Asia	2.900634	99.72141	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	151	11.0
GHA	Ghana	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.720397	68.65681	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	74	169.0
GIB	Gibraltar	Europe	Southern Europe	NaN	80.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	204	144.0
GIN	Guinea	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.256420	26.50957	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	176	211.0
GMB	Gambia	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.073105	48.92602	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	183	194.0
GNB	Guinea-Bissau	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.619680	44.95455	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	164	197.0
GNQ	Equatorial Guinea	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.187980	92.82023	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	180	103.0
GRC	Greece	Europe	Southern Europe	2.184492	94.38848	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	181	92.0
GRD	Grenada	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.550270	96.89724	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	124	75.0
GRL	Greenland	Americas	Northern America	NaN	100.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	205	4.0
GTM	Guatemala	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	2.541393	57.17512	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	168	187.0
GUM	Guam	Oceania	Micronesia	NaN	98.52628	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	206	50.0
GUY	Guyana	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.977280	86.26466	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	28	125.0
HKG	Hong Kong	Asia	Eastern Asia	3.086896	93.50000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	145	99.0
HND	Honduras	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.060441	66.92830	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	100	172.0
HRV	Croatia	Europe	Southern Europe	4.101622	98.31155	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	96	52.0
HTI	Haiti	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	1.875111	31.75606	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	186	206.0
HUN	Hungary	Europe	Eastern Europe	4.994239	99.06012	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	60	29.0
IDN	Indonesia	Asia	South-eastern Asia	2.543464	88.81549	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	167	119.0
IMN	NA	Europe	Northern Europe	NaN	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	221	217.0
IND	India	Asia	Southern Asia	3.625842	59.04709	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	122	181.0
IRL	Ireland	Europe	Northern Europe	4.865915	99.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	71	38.0
IRN	Iran	Asia	Southern Asia	3.869538	73.41727	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	107	159.0
IRQ	Iraq	Asia	Western Asia	3.277447	77.76422	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	140	150.0
ISL	Iceland	Europe	Northern Europe	6.697072	99.00000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	14	38.0
ISR	Israel	Asia	Western Asia	6.065511	94.42570	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	23	90.0
ITA	Italy	Europe	Southern Europe	4.236024	98.18531	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	91	54.0
JAM	Jamaica	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.982682	85.51742	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	61	130.0
JOR	Jordan	Asia	Western Asia	4.156999	90.54745	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	94	110.0
JPN	Japan	Asia	Eastern Asia	4.035063	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	102	38.0
KAZ	Kazakhstan	Asia	Central Asia	3.079483	99.14057	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	147	27.0
KEN	Kenya	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.621169	77.46984	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	36	152.0
KGZ	Kyrgyzstan	Asia	Central Asia	5.499907	99.14811	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	43	26.0
KHM	Cambodia	Asia	South-eastern Asia	1.697035	74.15550	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	190	157.0
KIR	NA	Oceania	Micronesia	7.706612	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	9	218.0
KNA	Saint Kitts and Nevis	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.393330	97.80000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	134	63.5
KOR	South Korea	Asia	Eastern Asia	3.406843	97.96594	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	131	60.0
KWT	Kuwait	Asia	Western Asia	4.627532	85.57383	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	77	129.0
LAO	Laos	Asia	South-eastern Asia	2.318959	70.22771	republic	executive	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	constitutionally granted power by single party	republic with executive head constitutionally granted power by single party	173	164.0
LBN	Lebanon	Asia	Western Asia	2.223663	91.83177	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	179	106.0
LBR	Liberia	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.139657	41.68448	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	182	201.0
LBY	Libya	Africa	Northern Africa	2.264170	80.90334	provisional	no	no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime	with no contsitutional legitimacy	provisional with no head with no contsitutional legitimacy	175	141.0
LCA	Saint Lucia	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.343116	90.10000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	86	114.0
LIE	Liechtenstein	Europe	Western Europe	2.245480	100.00000	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	177	4.0
LKA	Sri Lanka	Asia	Southern Asia	2.535103	90.43716	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	169	112.0
LSO	Lesotho	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	8.653212	80.47186	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	4	142.0
LTU	Lithuania	Europe	Northern Europe	4.958919	99.43147	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	63	19.0
LUX	Luxembourg	Europe	Western Europe	3.650740	100.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	120	4.0
LVA	Latvia	Europe	Northern Europe	5.337286	99.74686	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	51	10.0
MAC	Macao	Asia	Eastern Asia	2.678659	93.40819	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	161	100.0
MAF	NA	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NaN	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	223	222.0
MAR	Morocco	Africa	Northern Africa	5.246433	53.45492	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	55	189.0
MCO	Monaco	Europe	Western Europe	1.235655	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	195	38.0
MDA	Moldova	Europe	Eastern Europe	6.680688	97.90480	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	15	61.0
MDG	Madagascar	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.628151	66.60780	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	163	173.0
MDV	Maldives	Asia	Southern Asia	4.481600	94.41717	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	83	91.0
MEX	Mexico	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.274014	88.98518	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	89	118.0
MHL	Marshall Islands	Oceania	Micronesia	11.253536	98.26508	republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	elected by legislature	republic with executive head elected by legislature	1	53.0
MKD	North Macedonia	Europe	Southern Europe	4.294133	96.44580	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	88	77.0
MLI	Mali	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.315431	25.19784	provisional	no	no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime	with no contsitutional legitimacy	provisional with no head with no contsitutional legitimacy	138	212.0
MLT	Malta	Europe	Southern Europe	4.613346	90.65190	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	79	108.0
MMR	Myanmar	Asia	South-eastern Asia	1.915140	88.63134	provisional	no	no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime	with no contsitutional legitimacy	provisional with no head with no contsitutional legitimacy	185	120.0
MNE	Montenegro	Europe	Southern Europe	NaN	95.60674	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	207	82.0
MNG	Mongolia	Asia	Eastern Asia	4.941291	98.13116	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	66	55.0
MNP	Northern Mariana Islands	Oceania	Micronesia	NaN	97.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	212	73.0
MOZ	Mozambique	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.450694	44.67777	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	85	198.0
MRT	Mauritania	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.049036	49.61167	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	184	193.0
MSR	Montserrat	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NA	97.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	208	73.0
MUS	Mauritius	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.971570	88.53835	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	105	121.0
MWI	Malawi	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.003376	59.98611	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	103	180.0
MYS	Malaysia	Asia	South-eastern Asia	5.483972	85.77487	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	44	128.0
NAM	Namibia	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	6.927564	83.51319	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	11	137.0
NCL	New Caledonia	Oceania	Melanesia	NaN	94.85268	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	209	89.0
NER	Niger	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.744534	19.40194	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	157	214.0
NGA	Nigeria	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.136930	55.21642	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	142	188.0
NIC	Nicaragua	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.487388	63.69006	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	126	176.0
NIU	Niue	Oceania	Polynesia	NA	95.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	210	87.0
NLD	Netherlands	Europe	Western Europe	5.411029	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	47	38.0
NOR	Norway	Europe	Northern Europe	6.613507	100.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	17	4.0
NPL	Nepal	Asia	Southern Asia	3.730152	45.28982	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	113	196.0
NRU	NA	Oceania	Micronesia	4.246150	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	90	220.0
NZL	New Zealand	Oceania	Australia and New Zealand	5.548615	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	41	38.0
OMN	Oman	Asia	Western Asia	3.643375	88.22780	absolute monarchy	executive	all authority vested in absolute monarch	having absolute authority	absolute monarchy with executive head having absolute authority	121	122.0
PAK	Pakistan	Asia	Southern Asia	2.342144	51.07102	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	172	191.0
PAN	Panama	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.807270	84.24272	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	110	134.0
PER	Peru	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.211311	84.22014	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	141	135.0
PHL	Philippines	Asia	South-eastern Asia	2.649313	92.93114	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	162	102.0
PLW	Palau	Oceania	Micronesia	7.757654	96.47849	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	8	76.0
PNG	Papua New Guinea	Oceania	Melanesia	4.133172	61.29095	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	95	178.0
POL	Poland	Europe	Eastern Europe	4.916595	99.46492	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	70	18.0
PRI	Puerto Rico	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	6.722450	90.43851	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	13	111.0
PRK	North Korea	Asia	Eastern Asia	NaN	99.99875	republic	executive	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	constitutionally granted power by single party	republic with executive head constitutionally granted power by single party	211	8.0
PRT	Portugal	Europe	Southern Europe	4.167017	89.32215	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	92	117.0
PRY	Paraguay	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.079762	86.37620	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	146	124.0
PSE	Palestine	Asia	Western Asia	5.567826	94.15226	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	38	93.0
PYF	French Polynesia	Oceania	Polynesia	NaN	98.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	203	57.5
QAT	Qatar	Asia	Western Asia	3.369394	92.66726	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	135	104.0
ROU	Romania	Europe	Eastern Europe	3.402827	97.84222	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	132	62.0
RUS	Russia	Europe	Eastern Europe	3.764455	99.20772	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	112	23.0
RWA	Rwanda	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.718046	61.06872	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	116	179.0
SAU	Saudi Arabia	Asia	Western Asia	5.959900	84.45981	absolute monarchy	executive	all authority vested in absolute monarch	having absolute authority	absolute monarchy with executive head having absolute authority	29	133.0
SDN	Sudan	Africa	Northern Africa	1.716389	57.82152	provisional	no	no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime	with no contsitutional legitimacy	provisional with no head with no contsitutional legitimacy	189	185.0
SEN	Senegal	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.075480	44.03210	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	98	199.0
SGP	Singapore	Asia	South-eastern Asia	3.006399	93.66474	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	150	96.0
SHN	Saint Helena	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	NA	97.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	213	73.0
SLB	Solomon Islands	Oceania	Melanesia	6.559613	80.35000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	18	143.0
SLE	Sierra Leone	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.577896	43.48164	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	123	200.0
SLV	El Salvador	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.448316	73.05684	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	129	160.0
SMR	San Marino	Europe	Southern Europe	3.073748	96.00000	republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	elected by legislature	republic with executive head elected by legislature	148	79.0
SOM	Somalia	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.230985	37.80000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	196	203.0
SPM	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	Americas	Northern America	NA	99.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	214	38.0
SRB	Serbia	Europe	Southern Europe	4.047541	97.45418	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	101	66.0
SSD	South Sudan	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.245862	29.40376	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	194	207.0
STP	Sao Tome and Principe	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.362461	77.81696	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	49	149.0
SUR	Suriname	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NaN	93.60843	republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	elected by legislature	republic with executive head elected by legislature	215	97.0
SVK	Slovakia	Europe	Eastern Europe	4.067071	99.60000	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	99	16.0
SVN	Slovenia	Europe	Southern Europe	5.302957	99.65028	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	53	14.0
SWE	Sweden	Europe	Northern Europe	6.625000	99.00000	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	16	38.0
SWZ	Eswatini	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.700893	74.95872	absolute monarchy	executive	all authority vested in absolute monarch	having absolute authority	absolute monarchy with executive head having absolute authority	34	155.0
SXM	NA	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NaN	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	222	221.0
SYC	Seychelles	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.991766	90.63043	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	27	109.0
SYR	Syria	Asia	Western Asia	4.961290	78.32140	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	62	148.0
TCA	Turks and Caicos Islands	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.996080	98.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	104	57.5
TCD	Chad	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.274928	28.79964	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	174	210.0
TGO	Togo	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.309644	58.82138	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	87	182.0
THA	Thailand	Asia	South-eastern Asia	3.526057	93.04179	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	125	101.0
TJK	Tajikistan	Asia	Central Asia	3.402746	99.17368	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	133	25.0
TKM	Turkmenistan	Asia	Central Asia	3.049250	99.38137	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	149	21.0
TLS	Timor	Asia	South-eastern Asia	8.501869	52.64378	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	6	190.0
TON	Tonga	Oceania	Polynesia	5.341516	99.25994	constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	sharing power	constitutional monarchy with executive head sharing power	50	22.0
TTO	Trinidad and Tobago	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	3.867510	97.61729	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	108	65.0
TUN	Tunisia	Africa	Northern Africa	6.075683	72.92872	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	22	161.0
TUR	Turkey	Asia	Western Asia	2.508344	86.25201	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	171	126.0
TUV	NA	Oceania	Polynesia	5.642505	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	35	223.0
TWN	Taiwan	Asia	Eastern Asia	NA	96.10000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	216	78.0
TZA	Tanzania	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.327046	70.96110	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	136	163.0
UGA	Uganda	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.712810	68.80716	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	159	168.0
UKR	Ukraine	Europe	Eastern Europe	5.566057	99.64933	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	39	15.0
URY	Uruguay	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	2.895334	95.95549	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	153	80.0
USA	United States	Americas	Northern America	4.946395	99.13333	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	65	28.0
UZB	Uzbekistan	Asia	Central Asia	5.770146	99.65330	republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	independent of and accountable to legislature	republic with executive head independent of and accountable to legislature	33	12.0
VAT	Vatican	Europe	Southern Europe	NA	100.00000	absolute monarchy	executive	all authority vested in absolute monarch	having absolute authority	absolute monarchy with executive head having absolute authority	218	4.0
VCT	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.857815	95.63216	constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	constitutional monarchy with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	30	81.0
VEN	Venezuela	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.480655	83.86176	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	84	136.0
VGB	British Virgin Islands	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.723506	97.80000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	73	63.5
VIR	NA	Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean	NaN	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	224	224.0
VNM	Vietnam	Asia	South-eastern Asia	4.918966	89.98192	republic	executive	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	constitutionally granted power by single party	republic with executive head constitutionally granted power by single party	69	115.0
VUT	Vanuatu	Oceania	Melanesia	6.362590	73.83074	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	19	158.0
WLF	Wallis and Futuna	Oceania	Polynesia	NA	50.00000	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	219	192.0
WSM	Samoa	Oceania	Polynesia	4.095548	98.61827	republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	accountable to legislature	republic with ceremonial head accountable to legislature	97	49.0
YEM	Yemen	Asia	Western Asia	8.011537	57.51014	provisional	no	no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime	with no contsitutional legitimacy	provisional with no head with no contsitutional legitimacy	7	186.0
ZAF	South Africa	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.461569	89.85127	republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	elected by legislature	republic with executive head elected by legislature	45	116.0
ZMB	Zambia	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.729464	71.95042	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	114	162.0
ZWE	Zimbabwe	Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa	9.576959	82.94074	republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	independent of legislature	republic with executive head independent of legislature	2	139.0

Literacy rates (dependent variable):

# Summary statistics for literacy rate
describe(j$lit_rate) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 3.</b> Summary stats - literacy rate</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 3. Summary stats - literacy rate

	vars	n	mean	sd	median	trimmed	mad	min	max	range	skew	kurtosis	se
X1	1	214	82.51319	20.33653	90.89308	86.11195	12.01932	19.40194	100	80.59806	-1.300363	0.7319961	1.390177

# Histogram of literacy rate
j %>%
    drop_na(lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_histogram(aes(x = lit_rate), bins = 25, fill = 'lightblue') +
    xlab("Literacy rate") + ylab("Countries") +
    ggtitle("Figure 1. Literacy rate") + 
    theme_light()

Educational spending (independent, numerical variable):

# Summary statistics for percent GDP education spending
describe(j$pct_gdp) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 4.</b> Summary stats - educational spending</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 4. Summary stats - educational spending

	vars	n	mean	sd	median	trimmed	mad	min	max	range	skew	kurtosis	se
X1	1	196	4.27805	1.70355	4.071276	4.161513	1.74287	1.230985	11.25354	10.02255	0.8118612	1.173398	0.1216821

# Histogram of GDP education spending
j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_histogram(aes(x = pct_gdp), bins = 20, fill = 'lightblue') +
    xlab("% GDP") + ylab("Countries") +
    ggtitle("Figure 2. Percentage of GDP Spent on Education") +
    theme_light()

Regions (independent, categorical variable):

# Regions table
regions %>% 
    group_by(region, subregion) %>%
    summarize(n = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    select(-n) %>% 
    arrange(region, subregion) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 4.5.</b> Regions</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 4.5. Regions

region	subregion
Africa	Northern Africa
Africa	Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas	Latin America and the Caribbean
Americas	Northern America
Asia	Central Asia
Asia	Eastern Asia
Asia	South-eastern Asia
Asia	Southern Asia
Asia	Western Asia
Europe	Eastern Europe
Europe	Northern Europe
Europe	Southern Europe
Europe	Western Europe
Oceania	Australia and New Zealand
Oceania	Melanesia
Oceania	Micronesia
Oceania	Polynesia

# Bar chart of regions
j %>%
    drop_na(subregion) %>%
    group_by(subregion) %>%
    summarize(n = n()) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_bar(aes(x = reorder(subregion, n), y = n), fill = 'lightblue', stat = "identity") +
    xlab("Subregion") + ylab("Countries") +
    ggtitle("Figure 3. Subregions") +
    theme_light() +
    coord_flip()

Forms of government (independent, categorical variable):

# Governments table
govts %>% 
    group_by(govt, head_of_state, exec_legitimacy) %>%
    summarize(num_countries = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    arrange(desc(num_countries)) %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 4.7.</b> Forms of government</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 4.7. Forms of government

govt	head_of_state	exec_legitimacy	num_countries
republic	executive	presidency is independent of legislature	61
republic	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	41
constitutional monarchy	ceremonial	ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	29
republic	executive	presidency independent of legislature; ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence	29
constitutional monarchy	executive	monarch personally exercises power in concert with other institutions	10
republic	executive	presidency is elected by legislature; ministry may be, or not be, subject to parliamentary confidence	9
absolute monarchy	executive	all authority vested in absolute monarch	5
provisional	no	no constitutionally-defined basis to current regime	5
republic	executive	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	5
republic	ceremonial	power constitutionally linked to a single political movement	1

# Bar chart of governments
govts %>%
    group_by(govt_type_short) %>%
    summarize(n = n(), .groups = "keep") %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_bar(aes(x = reorder(govt_type_short, n), y = n), fill = 'lightblue', stat = "identity") +
    xlab("Form of goverment") + ylab("Countries") +
    ggtitle("Figure 4. Forms of government") +
    theme_light() +
    coord_flip()

Explore relationships between explanatory and response variables:

# Scatter plot of literacy rate vs education spending
j %>% 
    drop_na(pct_gdp, lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_point(aes(x = pct_gdp, y = lit_rate)) +
    theme_light() +
    xlab("Percent GDP") +
    ylab("Literacy rate") +
    ggtitle("Figure 5. Literacy rate vs educational spending")

# Box plots of literacy rate by region
j %>%
    drop_na(lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_boxplot(aes(x = reorder(subregion, -lit_rate), y = lit_rate)) +
    coord_flip() +
    theme_light() +
    xlab("Subregion") +
    ylab("Literacy rate") +
    ggtitle("Figure 6. Literacy rate by subregion")

# Box plots of literacy rate by form of government
j %>%
    drop_na(lit_rate) %>%
    drop_na(govt_type_short) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_boxplot(aes(x = reorder(govt_type_short, -lit_rate), y = lit_rate)) +
    xlab("Form of goverment") + ylab("Literacy rate") +
    ggtitle("Figure 7. Literacy rate by form of government") +
    theme_light() +
    coord_flip()

# Set world class for maps
world <- ne_countries(scale = "medium", returnclass = "sf", type = "countries")

# Map of literacy rate
world %>%
    inner_join(j, by = c("iso_a3" = "country_code")) %>%
    drop_na(lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_sf(aes(fill = lit_rate)) +
    scale_fill_viridis_c(option = "cividis", trans = "sqrt", direction = -1) +
    ggtitle("Figure 8. Literacy rate") +
    labs(fill = "Literacy rate")

Explore independence of explanatory variables:

# Box plots of ed spending by subregion
j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_boxplot(aes(x = reorder(subregion, -pct_gdp), y = pct_gdp)) +
    coord_flip() +
    theme_light() +
    xlab("Subregion") +
    ylab("% GDP") +
    ggtitle("Figure 9. Educational spending by subregion")

# Box plots of ed spending by form of government
j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp, govt_type_short) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_boxplot(aes(x = reorder(govt_type_short, -pct_gdp), y = pct_gdp)) +
    coord_flip() +
    theme_light() +
    xlab("Form of government") +
    ylab("% GDP") +
    ggtitle("Figure 10. Educational spending by form of government")

# Bar plot of form of government by region
j %>%
    drop_na(govt, region) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_bar(aes(x = region, fill = govt), position = "dodge") +
    coord_flip() +
    theme_light() +
    xlab("Region") +
    ylab("Countries") +
    ggtitle("Figure 11. Form of government by region")

# Map of subregions
world %>%
    inner_join(j, by = c("iso_a3" = "country_code"))  %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_sf(aes(fill = subregion.y)) +
    ggtitle("Figure 12. Subregions of the world") +
    labs(fill = "Subregion")

# Map of forms of government
world %>%
    inner_join(govts, by = c("iso_a3" = "country_code")) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_sf(aes(fill = govt)) +
    scale_fill_brewer(palette="PuBu") +
    ggtitle("Figure 13. Forms of government") +
    labs(fill = "Government")

# Map of educational spending
world %>%
    inner_join(j, by = c("iso_a3" = "country_code")) %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_sf(aes(fill = pct_gdp)) +
    scale_fill_viridis_c(option = "cividis", trans = "sqrt", direction = -1) +
    ggtitle("Figure 14. Educational spending") +
    labs(fill = "% GDP")

Part 4 - Inference

One goal of the project was to evaluate whether there is a statistically significant difference in literacy rate and educational spending across regions as well as across government types. To evaluate this, a series of ANOVA analyses were performed. The null hypothesis for each analysis was that there was no difference in rate for the variable in question; for example, for the first test, \(H_0\) = there is no difference in educational spending rate among subregions. The alternative hypothesis would be the opposite: \(H_A\) = there is a statistically significant difference in educational spending rate among subregions. Similar comparisons were made for the remaining ANOVA tests.

It is noted that not all of the conditions for ANOVA were met. Independence was assumed, but while education spending was fairly normal across subregions and government types, the same could not be said of literacy rate, which was strongly left-skewed. Similarly, the box plots also show that variance was not constant for literacy rates, while it was more constant for educational spending.

# Literacy rates by subregion
region_summ <- j %>% 
    group_by(region, subregion) %>%
    summarize(
        n_pct_gdp = n(),
        sd_pct_gdp = sd(pct_gdp, na.rm = T),
        mean_pct_gdp = mean(pct_gdp, na.rm = T),
        n_lit_rate = n(),
        sd_lit_rate = sd(lit_rate, na.rm = T),
        mean_lit_rate = mean(lit_rate, na.rm = T),
        .groups = "keep"
    )

# Literacy rates by govt
govt_summ <- j %>% 
    drop_na(govt_type_short) %>%
    group_by(govt_type_short) %>%
    summarize(
        n_pct_gdp = n(),
        sd_pct_gdp = sd(pct_gdp, na.rm = T),
        mean_pct_gdp = mean(pct_gdp, na.rm = T),
        n_lit_rate = n(),
        sd_lit_rate = sd(lit_rate, na.rm = T),
        mean_lit_rate = mean(lit_rate, na.rm = T),
        .groups = "keep"
    ) %>%
    mutate(sd_pct_gdp = ifelse(is.na(sd_pct_gdp), 0, sd_pct_gdp)) %>%
    mutate(sd_lit_rate = ifelse(is.na(sd_lit_rate), 0, sd_lit_rate))

# Find overall rate - ed spending
mean_pct_gdp = mean(j$pct_gdp, na.rm = T)
sd_pct_gdp = sd(j$pct_gdp, na.rm = T)
print(paste0("Mean spending on education across all countries = ", round(mean_pct_gdp, 3), "%, sd = ", round(sd_pct_gdp, 3)))

## [1] "Mean spending on education across all countries = 4.278%, sd = 1.704"

# Find overall rate - literacy rate
mean_lit_rate = mean(j$lit_rate, na.rm = T)
sd_lit_rate = sd(j$lit_rate, na.rm = T)
print(paste0("Mean literacy rate across all countries = ", round(mean_lit_rate, 3), "%, sd = ", round(sd_lit_rate, 3)))

## [1] "Mean literacy rate across all countries = 82.513%, sd = 20.337"

print("")

## [1] ""

# Histograms - ed spending by subregion
j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp) %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = pct_gdp)) +
    geom_histogram(binwidth = 0.5) +
    facet_wrap(~subregion, ncol = 3) + 
    ggtitle("Figure 15. Educational spending by subregion") +
    xlab("Educational spending (% GDP)") + ylab("")

# Histograms - literacy rate by subregion
j %>%
    drop_na(lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = lit_rate)) +
    geom_histogram(binwidth = 7) +
    facet_wrap(~subregion, ncol = 3) + 
    ggtitle("Figure 16. Literacy rate by subregion") +
    xlab("Literacy rate (%)") + ylab("")

# Histograms - ed spending by govt
j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp) %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = pct_gdp)) +
    geom_histogram(binwidth = 0.5) +
    facet_wrap(~govt_type_short, ncol = 3) + 
    ggtitle("Figure 17. Educational spending by government type") +
    xlab("Educational spending (% GDP)") + ylab("")

# Histograms - literacy rate by govt
j %>%
    drop_na(lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = lit_rate)) +
    geom_histogram(binwidth = 7) +
    facet_wrap(~govt_type_short, ncol = 3) + 
    ggtitle("Figure 18. Literacy rate by government type") +
    xlab("Literacy rate (%)") + ylab("")

# ANOVA - ed spending vs subregion
aov_ed_region <- aov(pct_gdp ~ subregion, data = j)
print(paste0("ANOVA results - educational spending vs subregion"))

## [1] "ANOVA results - educational spending vs subregion"

summary(aov_ed_region)

##              Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value   Pr(>F)    
## subregion    16  128.1   8.006   3.273 5.33e-05 ***
## Residuals   179  437.8   2.446                     
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 28 observations deleted due to missingness

# ANOVA - ed spending vs govt
aov_ed_govt <- aov(pct_gdp ~ govt_type_short, data = j)
print(paste0("ANOVA results - educational spending vs government type"))

## [1] "ANOVA results - educational spending vs government type"

summary(aov_ed_govt)

##                  Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)  
## govt_type_short   9   56.2   6.244   2.348 0.0159 *
## Residuals       174  462.8   2.660                 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 40 observations deleted due to missingness

# ANOVA - lit rate vs subregion
aov_lit_region <- aov(lit_rate ~ subregion, data = j)
print(paste0("ANOVA results - literacy rate vs subregion"))

## [1] "ANOVA results - literacy rate vs subregion"

summary(aov_lit_region)

##              Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)    
## subregion    16  48057  3003.5   14.78 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals   197  40035   203.2                   
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 10 observations deleted due to missingness

# ANOVA - lit rate vs govt
aov_lit_govt <- aov(lit_rate ~ govt_type_short, data = j)
print(paste0("ANOVA results - literacy rate vs government type"))

## [1] "ANOVA results - literacy rate vs government type"

summary(aov_lit_govt)

##                  Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value   Pr(>F)    
## govt_type_short   9  14384    1598    4.25 5.15e-05 ***
## Residuals       181  68065     376                     
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 33 observations deleted due to missingness

Next, a linear model was fit to the literacy rate vs ed spending data. It should be noted that not all of the conditions for least squares are not met:

1. Linearity: The data appear to be fairly linear, with a positive relationship.
2. Nearly normal residuals: As shown in the histogram and QQ plot, the residuals are significantly skewed to the left.
3. Constant variability: Variability isn’t constant, but narrows for higher values.
4. Independent observations: The observations are independent.

A second model was fit that ignored high-leverage points (percent gdp > 7.75%). Contrary to what I expected, the line didn’t change much.

# Linear model - literacy rate vs ed spending
lit_lm <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp, data = j, na.action = na.omit)
summary(lit_lm)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp, data = j, na.action = na.omit)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -56.631 -11.855   7.824  15.197  28.353 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  66.2369     3.9417  16.804  < 2e-16 ***
## pct_gdp       3.5691     0.8671   4.116 5.75e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 20.03 on 189 degrees of freedom
##   (33 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.08227,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.07742 
## F-statistic: 16.94 on 1 and 189 DF,  p-value: 5.749e-05

# Line of best fit
j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp, lit_rate) %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = pct_gdp, y = lit_rate)) +
    geom_point() + 
    geom_smooth(formula = y ~ x, method = "lm", se = T) +
    coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 100)) +
    xlab("Government spending (% GDP)") + ylab("Literacy rate (%)") +
    ggtitle("Figure 19. Literacy rate vs educational spending")

# Residuals plot
lit_lm %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = .fitted, y = .resid)) + 
    geom_point() +
    geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
    xlab("Fitted values") + ylab("Residuals") +
    ggtitle("Figure 20. Fitted values vs residuals")

# Residuals histogram
lit_lm %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = .resid)) +
    geom_histogram(binwidth = 4) +
    xlab("Residuals") + ylab("Count") +
    ggtitle("Figure 21. Residuals histogram")

# Probability plot
lit_lm %>%
    ggplot(aes(sample = .resid)) +
    stat_qq() +
    xlab("Theoretical values") + ylab("Actual values") +
    ggtitle("Figure 22. Probability plot")

# Removing high-leverage/influential points
lit_lm_2 <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp, data = filter(j, pct_gdp < 7.75), na.action = na.omit)
summary(lit_lm_2)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp, data = filter(j, pct_gdp < 7.75), 
##     na.action = na.omit)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -55.135 -12.064   6.308  14.451  32.390 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   60.118      4.452   13.50  < 2e-16 ***
## pct_gdp        5.254      1.040    5.05 1.07e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 19.7 on 182 degrees of freedom
##   (4 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1229, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1181 
## F-statistic:  25.5 on 1 and 182 DF,  p-value: 1.067e-06

j %>%
    drop_na(pct_gdp, lit_rate) %>%
    filter(pct_gdp < 7.75) %>%
    ggplot(aes(x = pct_gdp, y = lit_rate)) +
    geom_point() + 
    geom_smooth(formula = y ~ x, method = "lm", se = T) +
    coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 100)) +
    xlab("Fitted values") + ylab("Residuals") +
    ggtitle("Figure 22.5. Literacy rate vs educational spending (high-leverage values removed)")

One additional goal of the project was to evaluate whether adding the two categorical variables (subregion and government type) would influence the linear model. First, a backward elimination by p-value strategy was used to eliminate variables. But that resulted in removing the pct_gdp variable and ending up with two categorical variables having p-values greater than 0.05. So a different strategy was employed using forward selection.

# Prepare variables
incl_pct_gdp <- c('include', '', '', 'include', 'include', 'include')
incl_subregion <- c('', 'include', '', 'include', '', 'include')
incl_govt_type <- c('', '', 'include', '', 'include', 'include')
adjrsq <- c()

# Fit linear model - pct_gdp
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp, data = j)
adjrsq <- c(adjrsq, summary(lm_mult)$adj.r.squared)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp, data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -56.631 -11.855   7.824  15.197  28.353 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  66.2369     3.9417  16.804  < 2e-16 ***
## pct_gdp       3.5691     0.8671   4.116 5.75e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 20.03 on 189 degrees of freedom
##   (33 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.08227,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.07742 
## F-statistic: 16.94 on 1 and 189 DF,  p-value: 5.749e-05

# adj r-squared = 0.07742

# subregion
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ subregion, data = j)
adjrsq <- c(adjrsq, summary(lm_mult)$adj.r.squared)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ subregion, data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -55.177  -2.589   0.404   7.421  36.752 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                           Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                               99.00000   10.08022   9.821  < 2e-16
## subregionCentral Asia                      0.29941   11.92707   0.025 0.979998
## subregionEastern Asia                     -3.59469   11.27003  -0.319 0.750095
## subregionEastern Europe                   -0.07527   11.04233  -0.007 0.994568
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean -12.06678   10.32915  -1.168 0.244127
## subregionMelanesia                       -18.19513   11.92707  -1.526 0.128730
## subregionMicronesia                       -1.43254   12.34569  -0.116 0.907743
## subregionNorthern Africa                 -32.64453   11.63963  -2.805 0.005543
## subregionNorthern America                  0.02667   11.92707   0.002 0.998218
## subregionNorthern Europe                   0.39791   11.04233   0.036 0.971291
## subregionPolynesia                        -8.53966   11.42989  -0.747 0.455873
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia              -15.35649   10.95835  -1.401 0.162683
## subregionSouthern Asia                   -38.13625   11.14410  -3.422 0.000756
## subregionSouthern Europe                  -3.62906   10.69169  -0.339 0.734649
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa              -38.75206   10.28388  -3.768 0.000217
## subregionWestern Asia                    -11.17725   10.62548  -1.052 0.294121
## subregionWestern Europe                    0.11111   11.14410   0.010 0.992055
##                                             
## (Intercept)                              ***
## subregionCentral Asia                       
## subregionEastern Asia                       
## subregionEastern Europe                     
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean    
## subregionMelanesia                          
## subregionMicronesia                         
## subregionNorthern Africa                 ** 
## subregionNorthern America                   
## subregionNorthern Europe                    
## subregionPolynesia                          
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                 
## subregionSouthern Asia                   ***
## subregionSouthern Europe                    
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa              ***
## subregionWestern Asia                       
## subregionWestern Europe                     
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.26 on 197 degrees of freedom
##   (10 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.5455, Adjusted R-squared:  0.5086 
## F-statistic: 14.78 on 16 and 197 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

# adj r-squared = 0.5086

# govt type
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ govt_type_short, data = j)
adjrsq <- c(adjrsq, summary(lm_mult)$adj.r.squared)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ govt_type_short, data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -55.511  -7.458   5.459  11.145  26.619 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                                              Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                                                   87.5713
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        5.2831
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                     -3.4231
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                   -25.5585
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                       0.9695
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party  -2.4329
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   -3.7891
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            5.4537
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature   -12.6579
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                      -14.6766
##                                                                                              Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                                                      8.6723
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature          9.4149
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                       10.6214
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                      12.2645
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                         9.1859
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    21.2428
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party     12.2645
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                             11.7424
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature       9.3902
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                          9.0208
##                                                                                              t value
## (Intercept)                                                                                   10.098
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        0.561
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                     -0.322
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                    -2.084
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                       0.106
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party  -0.115
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   -0.309
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            0.464
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    -1.348
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       -1.627
##                                                                                              Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                                                    <2e-16
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        0.5754
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                      0.7476
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                     0.0386
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                       0.9161
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   0.9089
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    0.7577
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            0.6429
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature     0.1793
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                        0.1055
##                                                                                                 
## (Intercept)                                                                                  ***
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature         
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                       
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                   *  
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                        
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party     
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                             
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature      
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                         
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 19.39 on 181 degrees of freedom
##   (33 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1745, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1334 
## F-statistic:  4.25 on 9 and 181 DF,  p-value: 5.15e-05

# adj r-squared = 0.1334

# Now start with pct_gdp type and add in subregion
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + subregion, data = j)
adjrsq <- c(adjrsq, summary(lm_mult)$adj.r.squared)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + subregion, data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -48.675  -3.745   1.107   7.960  37.623 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                               85.7399    10.4087   8.237 4.17e-14
## pct_gdp                                    2.4785     0.6754   3.670 0.000323
## subregionCentral Asia                      3.2480    11.5778   0.281 0.779399
## subregionEastern Asia                      0.5249    11.3536   0.046 0.963178
## subregionEastern Europe                    1.6350    10.7033   0.153 0.878771
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean  -9.9564    10.0655  -0.989 0.323966
## subregionMelanesia                       -22.3053    11.9564  -1.866 0.063797
## subregionMicronesia                      -11.9280    14.0872  -0.847 0.398316
## subregionNorthern Africa                 -30.1010    11.2929  -2.665 0.008416
## subregionNorthern America                  1.6622    12.6132   0.132 0.895308
## subregionNorthern Europe                  -0.8357    10.6984  -0.078 0.937825
## subregionPolynesia                         1.5042    13.8114   0.109 0.913402
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia              -11.1689    10.6730  -1.046 0.296810
## subregionSouthern Asia                   -33.3619    10.8698  -3.069 0.002492
## subregionSouthern Europe                   1.0278    10.5937   0.097 0.922821
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa              -35.9655    10.0097  -3.593 0.000426
## subregionWestern Asia                     -7.5503    10.3518  -0.729 0.466760
## subregionWestern Europe                    3.0897    10.8222   0.285 0.775604
##                                             
## (Intercept)                              ***
## pct_gdp                                  ***
## subregionCentral Asia                       
## subregionEastern Asia                       
## subregionEastern Europe                     
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean    
## subregionMelanesia                       .  
## subregionMicronesia                         
## subregionNorthern Africa                 ** 
## subregionNorthern America                   
## subregionNorthern Europe                    
## subregionPolynesia                          
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                 
## subregionSouthern Asia                   ** 
## subregionSouthern Europe                    
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa              ***
## subregionWestern Asia                       
## subregionWestern Europe                     
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 13.8 on 173 degrees of freedom
##   (33 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.6008, Adjusted R-squared:  0.5616 
## F-statistic: 15.32 on 17 and 173 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

# adj r-squared = 0.5616 (higher than pct_gdp alone)

# pct_gdp type + govt_type
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + govt_type_short, data = j)
adjrsq <- c(adjrsq, summary(lm_mult)$adj.r.squared)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + govt_type_short, data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -50.908  -9.014   4.168  11.318  31.083 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                                              Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                                                   70.5917
## pct_gdp                                                                                        2.9194
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        8.0302
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                      3.0655
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                   -18.6347
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                       5.2957
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   9.1610
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   -5.4925
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            4.5250
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    -8.5559
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       -8.7280
##                                                                                              Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                                                     10.4672
## pct_gdp                                                                                          0.8901
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature         10.2362
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                       11.5340
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                      12.8982
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                        10.0650
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    21.5651
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party     13.5424
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                             12.9011
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature      10.2180
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                          9.9271
##                                                                                              t value
## (Intercept)                                                                                    6.744
## pct_gdp                                                                                        3.280
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        0.784
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                      0.266
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                    -1.445
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                       0.526
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   0.425
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   -0.406
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            0.351
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    -0.837
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       -0.879
##                                                                                              Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                                                  2.22e-10
## pct_gdp                                                                                       0.00126
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature       0.43383
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                     0.79072
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                    0.15034
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                      0.59946
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party  0.67151
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   0.68556
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                           0.72621
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    0.40356
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       0.38051
##                                                                                                 
## (Intercept)                                                                                  ***
## pct_gdp                                                                                      ** 
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature         
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                       
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                      
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                        
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party     
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                             
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature      
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                         
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 19.15 on 173 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2177, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1724 
## F-statistic: 4.813 on 10 and 173 DF,  p-value: 4.179e-06

# adj r-squared = 0.1724 (lower than pct_gdp alone)

# pct_gdp type + subregion + govt_type
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + subregion + govt_type_short, data = j)
adjrsq <- c(adjrsq, summary(lm_mult)$adj.r.squared)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + subregion + govt_type_short, 
##     data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -43.598  -4.943   0.617   7.198  36.567 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                                              Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                                                   85.3812
## pct_gdp                                                                                        2.2109
## subregionCentral Asia                                                                          7.0531
## subregionEastern Asia                                                                          5.6933
## subregionEastern Europe                                                                        6.0869
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean                                                      -8.6144
## subregionMelanesia                                                                           -20.8966
## subregionMicronesia                                                                          -12.1172
## subregionNorthern Africa                                                                     -20.4318
## subregionNorthern America                                                                      1.3391
## subregionNorthern Europe                                                                       1.3766
## subregionPolynesia                                                                             5.4398
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                                                                   -7.6281
## subregionSouthern Asia                                                                       -30.0771
## subregionSouthern Europe                                                                       2.5136
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa                                                                  -32.2298
## subregionWestern Asia                                                                         -2.9167
## subregionWestern Europe                                                                        4.7279
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        1.7908
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                     -3.7303
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                   -14.2561
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                      -0.8975
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party -10.0148
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   -2.7066
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            7.9204
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    -5.5587
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       -1.7359
##                                                                                              Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                                                     13.4195
## pct_gdp                                                                                          0.7332
## subregionCentral Asia                                                                           12.2477
## subregionEastern Asia                                                                           13.0671
## subregionEastern Europe                                                                         11.4471
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean                                                        10.5685
## subregionMelanesia                                                                              12.3311
## subregionMicronesia                                                                             15.1447
## subregionNorthern Africa                                                                        12.3039
## subregionNorthern America                                                                       14.1805
## subregionNorthern Europe                                                                        11.1278
## subregionPolynesia                                                                              14.7098
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                                                                     11.2216
## subregionSouthern Asia                                                                          11.5356
## subregionSouthern Europe                                                                        11.2066
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa                                                                     10.7116
## subregionWestern Asia                                                                           11.1476
## subregionWestern Europe                                                                         11.3141
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature          8.0030
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                        8.7914
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                       9.8615
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                         7.7742
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    17.9961
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party     10.2177
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                             10.0152
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature       7.7796
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                          7.6871
##                                                                                              t value
## (Intercept)                                                                                    6.362
## pct_gdp                                                                                        3.015
## subregionCentral Asia                                                                          0.576
## subregionEastern Asia                                                                          0.436
## subregionEastern Europe                                                                        0.532
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean                                                      -0.815
## subregionMelanesia                                                                            -1.695
## subregionMicronesia                                                                           -0.800
## subregionNorthern Africa                                                                      -1.661
## subregionNorthern America                                                                      0.094
## subregionNorthern Europe                                                                       0.124
## subregionPolynesia                                                                             0.370
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                                                                   -0.680
## subregionSouthern Asia                                                                        -2.607
## subregionSouthern Europe                                                                       0.224
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa                                                                   -3.009
## subregionWestern Asia                                                                         -0.262
## subregionWestern Europe                                                                        0.418
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature        0.224
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                     -0.424
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                    -1.446
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                      -0.115
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party  -0.556
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   -0.265
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                            0.791
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    -0.715
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       -0.226
##                                                                                              Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                                                  2.07e-09
## pct_gdp                                                                                       0.00300
## subregionCentral Asia                                                                         0.56552
## subregionEastern Asia                                                                         0.66366
## subregionEastern Europe                                                                       0.59566
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean                                                      0.41625
## subregionMelanesia                                                                            0.09213
## subregionMicronesia                                                                           0.42487
## subregionNorthern Africa                                                                      0.09879
## subregionNorthern America                                                                     0.92489
## subregionNorthern Europe                                                                      0.90171
## subregionPolynesia                                                                            0.71203
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                                                                   0.49765
## subregionSouthern Asia                                                                        0.01001
## subregionSouthern Europe                                                                      0.82282
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa                                                                   0.00306
## subregionWestern Asia                                                                         0.79394
## subregionWestern Europe                                                                       0.67661
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature       0.82323
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                     0.67192
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                    0.15027
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                      0.90824
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party  0.57866
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party   0.79144
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                           0.43023
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature    0.47596
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                       0.82164
##                                                                                                 
## (Intercept)                                                                                  ***
## pct_gdp                                                                                      ** 
## subregionCentral Asia                                                                           
## subregionEastern Asia                                                                           
## subregionEastern Europe                                                                         
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean                                                        
## subregionMelanesia                                                                           .  
## subregionMicronesia                                                                             
## subregionNorthern Africa                                                                     .  
## subregionNorthern America                                                                       
## subregionNorthern Europe                                                                        
## subregionPolynesia                                                                              
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                                                                     
## subregionSouthern Asia                                                                       *  
## subregionSouthern Europe                                                                        
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa                                                                  ** 
## subregionWestern Asia                                                                           
## subregionWestern Europe                                                                         
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature         
## govt_type_shortconstitutional monarchy with executive head\nsharing power                       
## govt_type_shortprovisional with no head\nwith no contsitutional legitimacy                      
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\naccountable to legislature                        
## govt_type_shortrepublic with ceremonial head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party    
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nconstitutionally granted power by single party     
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nelected by legislature                             
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of and accountable to legislature      
## govt_type_shortrepublic with executive head\nindependent of legislature                         
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.05 on 157 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.6179, Adjusted R-squared:  0.5546 
## F-statistic: 9.765 on 26 and 157 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

# adj r-squared = 0.5546 (lower than pct_gdp and subregion)

# data frame
df_models <- data.frame(adj_rsquared = adjrsq, pct_gdp = incl_pct_gdp, 
    subregion = incl_subregion, govt_type = incl_govt_type)
df_models %>%
    kable(caption = "<i><font color=#000000><b>Table 5.</b> Linear model results</font></i>") %>% 
    kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), font_size = 13)

Table 5. Linear model results

adj_rsquared	pct_gdp	subregion	govt_type
0.0774153	include
0.5086218		include
0.1334152			include
0.5616186	include	include
0.1724391	include		include
0.5546388	include	include	include

# Best model:
lm_mult <- lm(lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + subregion, data = j)
summary(lm_mult)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lit_rate ~ pct_gdp + subregion, data = j)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -48.675  -3.745   1.107   7.960  37.623 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                               85.7399    10.4087   8.237 4.17e-14
## pct_gdp                                    2.4785     0.6754   3.670 0.000323
## subregionCentral Asia                      3.2480    11.5778   0.281 0.779399
## subregionEastern Asia                      0.5249    11.3536   0.046 0.963178
## subregionEastern Europe                    1.6350    10.7033   0.153 0.878771
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean  -9.9564    10.0655  -0.989 0.323966
## subregionMelanesia                       -22.3053    11.9564  -1.866 0.063797
## subregionMicronesia                      -11.9280    14.0872  -0.847 0.398316
## subregionNorthern Africa                 -30.1010    11.2929  -2.665 0.008416
## subregionNorthern America                  1.6622    12.6132   0.132 0.895308
## subregionNorthern Europe                  -0.8357    10.6984  -0.078 0.937825
## subregionPolynesia                         1.5042    13.8114   0.109 0.913402
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia              -11.1689    10.6730  -1.046 0.296810
## subregionSouthern Asia                   -33.3619    10.8698  -3.069 0.002492
## subregionSouthern Europe                   1.0278    10.5937   0.097 0.922821
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa              -35.9655    10.0097  -3.593 0.000426
## subregionWestern Asia                     -7.5503    10.3518  -0.729 0.466760
## subregionWestern Europe                    3.0897    10.8222   0.285 0.775604
##                                             
## (Intercept)                              ***
## pct_gdp                                  ***
## subregionCentral Asia                       
## subregionEastern Asia                       
## subregionEastern Europe                     
## subregionLatin America and the Caribbean    
## subregionMelanesia                       .  
## subregionMicronesia                         
## subregionNorthern Africa                 ** 
## subregionNorthern America                   
## subregionNorthern Europe                    
## subregionPolynesia                          
## subregionSouth-eastern Asia                 
## subregionSouthern Asia                   ** 
## subregionSouthern Europe                    
## subregionSub-Saharan Africa              ***
## subregionWestern Asia                       
## subregionWestern Europe                     
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 13.8 on 173 degrees of freedom
##   (33 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.6008, Adjusted R-squared:  0.5616 
## F-statistic: 15.32 on 17 and 173 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Using forward selection, the best model is from using educational spending by itself, without subregion or government type as additional predictors.

Part 5 - Conclusion

Based on the results of this analysis, literacy rate is confirmed to be impacted positively by educational spending. It is noted that the impact is fairly steep, with every percentage point of GDP spent on education having a three-percent rise in literacy rate.

The results of the ANOVA analysis indicate strongly that there is a statistically significant difference between both literacy rate and educational spending among regions and, additionally, among various government types. Not surprisingly, higher literacy rates are enjoyed by republics having an elected head of state who is accountable to his or her constituents, while lower literacy rates were observed in countries with provisional governments. While it was expected that literacy rates in sub-Saharan Africa would be among the lowest, it was somewhat surprising that Central Asia boasted the highest overall literacy rates. These countries include the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. And while their overall literacy rate is, indeed, very high, according to the UN’s definition of literacy, many people in these countries are “functionally” illiterate.\(^5\) (UNESCO defines literacy as “the ability to use reading, writing and numeracy skills for effective functioning and development of the individual and the community. A person is literate who can, with understanding, both read and write a short statement on his or her everyday life.”\(^6\) Conversely, “a person is functionally literate who can engage in all those activities in which literacy is required for effective functioning of his group and community and also for enabling him to continue to use reading, writing, and calculation for his own and the community’s development.”\(^7\)) Another interesting outlier is the amount of money spent on education by Micronesia. While its average 7.9% of GDP spent on education, it should be noted that the U.S. funds around 90% of that amount in exchange for access to the islands for military purposes.\(^8\)

As noted above, not all conditions for ANOVA were met: Literacy rate data were significantly left-skewed, and the variance was not constant. Similarly, not all conditions for fitting a linear model were met: The residuals were skewed to the left, and variability narrowed at higher values.

In conclusion, there was significant statistical evidence to suggest literacy rate is also affected by subregion of the world and by the type of government in place. Perhaps more significantly, there was strong correlation between government spending on education (as a percentage of GDP) and literacy rate, with a three-fold increase in literacy for every percentage point increase in education spending.

References

\(^1\) https://github.com/lukes/ISO-3166-Countries-with-Regional-Codes/blob/master/all/all.csv \(^2\) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS \(^3\) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Data:Cross-country_literacy_rates_-_World_Bank,_CIA_World_Factbook,_and_other_sources_(OWID_2762).tab \(^4\) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_system_of_government \(^5\) https://www.dvv-international.de/en/adult-education-and-development/editions/aed-662006/education-for-all-and-literacy/review-of-central-asian-countries \(^6\) https://www.fipfoundation.org/pictograms-support/about-health-literacy/#:~:text=UNESCO%20provides%20a%20definition%20of,his%20or%20her%20everyday%20life.%E2%80%9D \(^7\) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5102880/ \(^8\) https://www.grassrootinstitute.org/2016/09/us-policies-may-hurt-micronesians-more-than-they-help/